1. Lower tariffs in India? - Will the proposed reduction in port charges at POI's proposed by TRAI and opposed by BSNL, lead to a further reduction in tariffs given the consequent lowering of access charges?
2. Dish versus Tata Sky : A quick update on the happenings on the STBs, Cable & Sat TVs.
3. IBM : The acquisitions of this big daddy do put some other wannabe-biggies to shame! Clearly IBM is carving out territory one acquisition at a time, and at a dizzying pace!
4. Telco PSUs - "Paradigms Lost" : Now that's what you'd call a project in reduction of Access Charges. MTNL finds BSNL carriage cost of 65p expensive and goes out and floats a tender, and selects Reliance. Privatisation, did someone say? Ha! And check out Railtel's venture for setting up Cybercafes in Railway Stations, the Pune station with its 1Gbps connectivity is a shining example of PSU effectiveness!
5. New destinations in Outsourcing : As costs in India rise, Vietnam's entry into the WTO and Nam's expected IT & Telecom growth make it a candidate for outsourcing to; just as the crumbling infrastructure in India & specialized skills push BFSI's to Uruguay.
6. A short and nice case study from the courier industry (Elbee): A neat pointer to the market potential of complete communications solutions aimed at a vertical. Maybe it will be as simple as a Telco tying up with a vendor like Nortel who has the cross-platform, cross-industry domain expertise on such stuff
7. Another interesting article illustrating new emerging segments to target as communication technology advances open up new revenue opportunities and models : The vertical of Business Centers can now offer a wider range of solutions to their clientele interested in cutting their infra costs, by providing them with telecommuting solutions launched in tandem with Telcos - Now that should make the blokes at McKinsey proud as it "leverages core competencies" :D
8. New bundled products for the SME market - interesting lessons to learn from Singtel.
9. Another probable radical bundled product for call centers - Emotion detection software to enable predictive churn!
10. Cisco's efforts on providing bundled offerings to the SMB segment with nice-sounding-options like Buybacks and Leasing, to enable easy transition to investments.
11. There's a whole range of probable new applications on broadband that the government would be looking at investing in - clearly a hot sector and segment to focus on.
12. A nice article on P2P that attempts to explain why YouTube succeeded where Napster failed. Probably a question of timing, positioning & street-smartness!
Sunday, August 20, 2006
The VOIP Phenomenon
As it spreads it wings, VOIP holds out the promise to be another disruptive technological innovation, leveling the fields. As cable folks adopt VOIP to compete in new industries, so too do organizations such as contact centers as evinced in the sites speaking of the Yankee Group research, keen on reducing cost to gain competitive advantages. Companies like Verizon are going even further in reducing the entry level cost into a VOIP solution by providing some of the services like a Toll Free & IVR on its own network, thus making it almost as easy as buying a plug-n-play contact center!
There are also new devices based on VOIP led convergence entering the market, some from the creatively-silly to backend switch-level hardware. But the immediate developments do seem to be to integrate the mouse with a VOIP communication device, as seen in Sony's and Logitech's initiatives. The variety of VOIP phones available boggles the mind, Freetel's new phone aims to integrate the PSTN and VOIP phone into one. Wireless VOIP phones too are beginning to make their presence felt, with companies so far down the value chain to engage in aesthetics keeping the use of the equipment in mind, such as GN Netcom
But hope does not seem lost, for telco's like Verizon seem to believe that FTTH will be their key weapon to compete with VOIP. Is this too late - 1000 customers churning per day from Telcos to Cable companies in the US seems to be quite on the high side! Further, for large scale government deployments, the need for high speed internet connectivity that VOIP predicates does seem to be a barrier to its adoption over POTS/PSTN lines in totality - rather clients are looking for blended solutions, even in developed and advanced nations. Another barrier that seems to be coming up is the actual cost of deploying an entire VOIP architecture and solution, and what kind of time frames justify the infra and running costs overruns versus the savings on usage. There is also a school of thought that opines that Telcos will embrace VOIP and become primary providers of the service over the next 10-15 yrs (?!) in advanced nations, while in less developed nations embarking on the telecom revolution - VOIP will be the de-facto entry route.
Other VOIP Developments
Security : For those who believe that VOIP security will be a critical issue, here's Zimmermans attempt at encryption.
Devices : Philips launches cordless phones, one supporting Skype, one supporting Windows Live.
IM : IBM integrates VOIP into Sametime Connect. (What a pity that some organizations using IBM's Lotus Suite use less than 1/100th of its true Collaboration Tools)
Backend Products : Viola Network has a range of products that work in measuring the effectiveness of VOIP networks, one such being NetAlly Lifecycle Manager. Basically the range of these products serve functions like measuring session quality, evaluating network structures pre and post VOIP implementation etc.
There is also increasing adoption of VOIP technology for purposes that are beyond the basic low-cost benefit, as can be seen in the emergence of the medical-translation industry. Similarly the Hammond Care Group is implementing a VOIP solution across its centers, using VOIP to enable additional services to its consumers. The idea of revitalizing the good old payphone using the convergence of VOIP & WiMax is simply brilliant - The ideal spots would be the Railway stations and airports for this kind of setup. I wonder which is the overseas telecom companies refered to here, I would not be surprised if its MTNL/BSNL (Personal digression : my own experience has been that the tech folks from these firms are so incredibly forward thinking. I wish I'd listened to my dad and written the Civil Services exams - though in retrospect I wonder if I'd have got thru!)
There are also new devices based on VOIP led convergence entering the market, some from the creatively-silly to backend switch-level hardware. But the immediate developments do seem to be to integrate the mouse with a VOIP communication device, as seen in Sony's and Logitech's initiatives. The variety of VOIP phones available boggles the mind, Freetel's new phone aims to integrate the PSTN and VOIP phone into one. Wireless VOIP phones too are beginning to make their presence felt, with companies so far down the value chain to engage in aesthetics keeping the use of the equipment in mind, such as GN Netcom
But hope does not seem lost, for telco's like Verizon seem to believe that FTTH will be their key weapon to compete with VOIP. Is this too late - 1000 customers churning per day from Telcos to Cable companies in the US seems to be quite on the high side! Further, for large scale government deployments, the need for high speed internet connectivity that VOIP predicates does seem to be a barrier to its adoption over POTS/PSTN lines in totality - rather clients are looking for blended solutions, even in developed and advanced nations. Another barrier that seems to be coming up is the actual cost of deploying an entire VOIP architecture and solution, and what kind of time frames justify the infra and running costs overruns versus the savings on usage. There is also a school of thought that opines that Telcos will embrace VOIP and become primary providers of the service over the next 10-15 yrs (?!) in advanced nations, while in less developed nations embarking on the telecom revolution - VOIP will be the de-facto entry route.
Other VOIP Developments
Security : For those who believe that VOIP security will be a critical issue, here's Zimmermans attempt at encryption.
Devices : Philips launches cordless phones, one supporting Skype, one supporting Windows Live.
IM : IBM integrates VOIP into Sametime Connect. (What a pity that some organizations using IBM's Lotus Suite use less than 1/100th of its true Collaboration Tools)
Backend Products : Viola Network has a range of products that work in measuring the effectiveness of VOIP networks, one such being NetAlly Lifecycle Manager. Basically the range of these products serve functions like measuring session quality, evaluating network structures pre and post VOIP implementation etc.
There is also increasing adoption of VOIP technology for purposes that are beyond the basic low-cost benefit, as can be seen in the emergence of the medical-translation industry. Similarly the Hammond Care Group is implementing a VOIP solution across its centers, using VOIP to enable additional services to its consumers. The idea of revitalizing the good old payphone using the convergence of VOIP & WiMax is simply brilliant - The ideal spots would be the Railway stations and airports for this kind of setup. I wonder which is the overseas telecom companies refered to here, I would not be surprised if its MTNL/BSNL (Personal digression : my own experience has been that the tech folks from these firms are so incredibly forward thinking. I wish I'd listened to my dad and written the Civil Services exams - though in retrospect I wonder if I'd have got thru!)
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Grating carrots 101
What Sanjeev Kapur never told me
1. Grating carrots is NOT like cleaning your inbox, you cant do it watching TV. Dont multitask!
2. Start with the thin end being grated and the thick end in your hand
3. Its not your ego - if the final bit is difficult, its not that the carrot has come alive and challenging your manhood. Eat it or throw it, no need to ensure that you grated that last bit.
4. Typing with 6 fingers is not easy
5. Adopting a posture where you can "put your weight" on the carrot is NOT a "very clever idea", especially when you weigh above 80Kilos
Peace
1. Grating carrots is NOT like cleaning your inbox, you cant do it watching TV. Dont multitask!
2. Start with the thin end being grated and the thick end in your hand
3. Its not your ego - if the final bit is difficult, its not that the carrot has come alive and challenging your manhood. Eat it or throw it, no need to ensure that you grated that last bit.
4. Typing with 6 fingers is not easy
5. Adopting a posture where you can "put your weight" on the carrot is NOT a "very clever idea", especially when you weigh above 80Kilos
Peace
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Unstructured Memes
1. Satellite phones : When will the satellite phone be a consumer mass market reality?
2. Social Networking : The biggest emerging trend as per Gartners latest research study for the decade.
3. Wireless HDTV : Seriously interesting twists and turns in the hardware side.
4. WiFi Networks : Google takes on Msft with its Spreadsheets app, will it take on Telcos too?
5. VDSL : The role of government in regulating monopolies in the light of new emerging technologies is interesting. Specially to note is that the First Mover advantage seems to be still relevant in this industry. Also the new technologies seem to be ready to cater to the needs of new demand streams like IPTV & Telemedicine.
2. Social Networking : The biggest emerging trend as per Gartners latest research study for the decade.
3. Wireless HDTV : Seriously interesting twists and turns in the hardware side.
4. WiFi Networks : Google takes on Msft with its Spreadsheets app, will it take on Telcos too?
5. VDSL : The role of government in regulating monopolies in the light of new emerging technologies is interesting. Specially to note is that the First Mover advantage seems to be still relevant in this industry. Also the new technologies seem to be ready to cater to the needs of new demand streams like IPTV & Telemedicine.
Monday, August 14, 2006
The media metamorphosis
Google is a media company. And rightly so, for it stands a reminder to the inexorable change being wrought on us by the internet. Its probably a little unfair to say this, but I do believe that I have not come across telco's at least, treating the internet as a medium with the seriousness it deserves. Its probably because we are so used to selling it from a backend technology viewpoint, that the marketing folks are probably missing out on the sheer impact of the net on the media habits of tomorrow. For this, Google is a pointer & its own actions are marked by a company that understands consumer internet consumption habits and is always innovating to envisage viable revenue models from the same. Quite simply and unbeatably brilliant approach that would seem easy to replicate (the principle), and yet, we all shy from the sheer mathematical bloody-minded discipline of it.
One of the new media emerging on the internet front - and here, one must get into probably seeing the internet as a huge channel with the potential for multiple media within its own delivery mechanism - is Podcasting. With its growing influence and investment flowing into this area, this is worth understanding in greater detail for the opportunities it presents.
Not only do new media emerge, but the way advertising takes hold of these media too needs realignment. The new ads on TiVo by Sprint/Coke are testament to the inherent creativity that not only beats the constraints of new technologies ability to screen out ads, but also uses the same technology to convert advertising to entertainment, thus leading to the eventual blurring of it all! But this is indeed really clever, and probably a step in media/creative ad agencies starting to understand and use the power of technology to deliver content that would engage audiences. The whole concept and importance of Content in advertising is addressed brilliantly in this article, which puts cogently some of my own views on the need for a richer understanding of user interactions on the web, to enable effective content models for advertising - new payperpost models and yet undefined models could change the dynamics of advertising completely as IP networks and convergence-devices take hold of consumer timeshare.
Also most companies are actively in setting up transactional websites to effectively monitor and track customer visits & transform intent into revenue opportunities. The field of web analytics and its variants are currently addressing the needs posed by these requirements.
On the same note, while the Internet is a new medium, so are conventional communication lines. For example, the cellphone is also a marketing tool and advertisers are starting to wake up to the need to create content for the cellphone in the form of trailers/Snippets like Omega here with "Flyboys". The same is being replicated for its TV line up by CBS Network Television. I remember this being briefly tried here by Hutch with its Great Indian Comedy show routine, no idea where that brilliant idea vanished... consigned to the bins of non-profitability perhaps, not enough patience to allow the innovators to talk about it and get the early-adopters on board perhaps.
One of the new media emerging on the internet front - and here, one must get into probably seeing the internet as a huge channel with the potential for multiple media within its own delivery mechanism - is Podcasting. With its growing influence and investment flowing into this area, this is worth understanding in greater detail for the opportunities it presents.
Not only do new media emerge, but the way advertising takes hold of these media too needs realignment. The new ads on TiVo by Sprint/Coke are testament to the inherent creativity that not only beats the constraints of new technologies ability to screen out ads, but also uses the same technology to convert advertising to entertainment, thus leading to the eventual blurring of it all! But this is indeed really clever, and probably a step in media/creative ad agencies starting to understand and use the power of technology to deliver content that would engage audiences. The whole concept and importance of Content in advertising is addressed brilliantly in this article, which puts cogently some of my own views on the need for a richer understanding of user interactions on the web, to enable effective content models for advertising - new payperpost models and yet undefined models could change the dynamics of advertising completely as IP networks and convergence-devices take hold of consumer timeshare.
Also most companies are actively in setting up transactional websites to effectively monitor and track customer visits & transform intent into revenue opportunities. The field of web analytics and its variants are currently addressing the needs posed by these requirements.
On the same note, while the Internet is a new medium, so are conventional communication lines. For example, the cellphone is also a marketing tool and advertisers are starting to wake up to the need to create content for the cellphone in the form of trailers/Snippets like Omega here with "Flyboys". The same is being replicated for its TV line up by CBS Network Television. I remember this being briefly tried here by Hutch with its Great Indian Comedy show routine, no idea where that brilliant idea vanished... consigned to the bins of non-profitability perhaps, not enough patience to allow the innovators to talk about it and get the early-adopters on board perhaps.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
Business Intelligence, Datawarehousing ... the whole 9 yards
One would assume that these tools would rapidly grow, given ones own experience in implementing some of these. I believe that the current swell of analytics is still only at the surface, at least in telcos. Banks and insurance firms are well up the curve on this area, which would be understandable. Some of the industry dynamics of extreme competition and the low switching cost between products is making banks go the whole hog with regard to BI tools. It is a testament to the need & utility & complexity of such tools that has led SAS to create its BICC (BI Competence Center) to facilitate clients in their BI forays/journeys. This raises in my mind the question as to whether a BI implementation should be led by the warehousing partner or the Data mining partner, each would come with a very different approach indeed.
But the real power of analytics does lie in Telcos, given the extensive and vast data that lies in here. A true in depth implementation of an analytics solution, right from warehousing to mining, could change the entire rule of the game in this industry. This wonderful article speaks out issues close to my own heart and probably voices some of the concerns that these lips often speak of, but none really listen to - which, if one agrees with the article, is what one can expect - tautological circularity (pardon the brief digression). The headline reads as "The secret to being better at BI than others – not just being like others – lies in actually knowing what one is doing and thus what else is needed in order to further drive the business". Now isn't that so absolutely accurate! Another brilliant insight into the current state of BI adoption within telcos, its flaws and the need for a dedicated senior level BI team is brought out in the initiatives taken in the Middle East area as documented here. Most telcos and probably firms end up making the errors spoken of in this short article, viz. spending more time generating reports than using them to make decisions. It would indeed be naive of Indian telcos to not take a leaf from these lessons and give BI the teeth it needs in organizations to truly provide information to enable transformational leadership to engage the organization.
One of the easier starting points of any BI implementation should probably be the budgeting-dashboards like Host Analytics provides. This would be of relevance and need across the organization and giving increasing cost cutting pressures, the advantages of adoption of a tool that enables effective transparency would not be missed out by decision makers. Yet another opportunity is being exploited by Rockwell, which is using BI tools to enable online predictive monitoring of issues - the same can easily be integrated into most current call center applications, without having to invest in, or wait for miracle-complex-total solutions!
The concept of MDM (Master Data Management) is getting focus from the B-Eye network, with the research they are conducting & opening for sponsorship. It would behoove serious Indian telco's to get onto this bandwagon at the early stages with senior management involved directly in the same, to leverage the potential of BI through its vendors.
Also, the cost structure of a BI implementation would need to cover post implementation costs too as this article points out. It would seem that SAS once again is the leader of the pack and/or is definitely has one hell of a PR company managing its public face in news articles.
But the real power of analytics does lie in Telcos, given the extensive and vast data that lies in here. A true in depth implementation of an analytics solution, right from warehousing to mining, could change the entire rule of the game in this industry. This wonderful article speaks out issues close to my own heart and probably voices some of the concerns that these lips often speak of, but none really listen to - which, if one agrees with the article, is what one can expect - tautological circularity (pardon the brief digression). The headline reads as "The secret to being better at BI than others – not just being like others – lies in actually knowing what one is doing and thus what else is needed in order to further drive the business". Now isn't that so absolutely accurate! Another brilliant insight into the current state of BI adoption within telcos, its flaws and the need for a dedicated senior level BI team is brought out in the initiatives taken in the Middle East area as documented here. Most telcos and probably firms end up making the errors spoken of in this short article, viz. spending more time generating reports than using them to make decisions. It would indeed be naive of Indian telcos to not take a leaf from these lessons and give BI the teeth it needs in organizations to truly provide information to enable transformational leadership to engage the organization.
One of the easier starting points of any BI implementation should probably be the budgeting-dashboards like Host Analytics provides. This would be of relevance and need across the organization and giving increasing cost cutting pressures, the advantages of adoption of a tool that enables effective transparency would not be missed out by decision makers. Yet another opportunity is being exploited by Rockwell, which is using BI tools to enable online predictive monitoring of issues - the same can easily be integrated into most current call center applications, without having to invest in, or wait for miracle-complex-total solutions!
The concept of MDM (Master Data Management) is getting focus from the B-Eye network, with the research they are conducting & opening for sponsorship. It would behoove serious Indian telco's to get onto this bandwagon at the early stages with senior management involved directly in the same, to leverage the potential of BI through its vendors.
Also, the cost structure of a BI implementation would need to cover post implementation costs too as this article points out. It would seem that SAS once again is the leader of the pack and/or is definitely has one hell of a PR company managing its public face in news articles.
Saturday, August 12, 2006
The wireless phenomenon & 3G
It starts with the great 3G debate : another of the events on the telecom landscape to probably closely focus on. It too is abutting the venn-diagram-set of the Consumer versus Citizen debate, how much of the military spectrum should be taken and given to the private operators? What kind of charges to affix on the same - how does one measure the scarcity of spectrum, which like the air is considered by many to be measurably infinite. What kind of inexhaustibility are we talking about here? The issue on pricing also brings up the rules of allocation. Another interesting meme is Misra's quote on "the price of reform".
What would need to get seen too is the implication of this on other allied industries. While most believe that the emergence of 3G would put wired businesses out of business, the same industry also requires a huge investment in structured cabling to enable/ensure effective wireless experience at the user end. One of the driving concerns also seems to be the state of development of the nation, completely underdeveloped or less developed nations (so called) can now leapfrog directly to WiMesh networks, while the developed nations rely on conventional wired Broadband as a route to recover their own investments. Another related issue is the handshake between operators of different technologies to enable the consumer to have a seamless experience as he/she switch thru zones intentionally/unintentionally. Clearly, there are quite a few issues that still need even contemplating and documenting, let alone addressing, but the cost advantage of Wireless Networks in terms of Capex per sub are too significant to ignore.
The other major driver of the wireless revolution (in addition to the reduced Capex/sub) is the emergence of mCommerce applications. It is the combined impact of these two factors that seems to be driving VC money towards the wireless industry, which dominates more than 60% of all global telecom investment.
However, it would seem that the industry too has not yet completely aligned on how WiMax should get rolled out. The disagreement between the GSM and CDMA players on the frequency band for WiMax & the inertia of the government in taking an instant decision has once again come in the way of rapid growth. Globally though, there seems to be progress amidst chaos. Sprint seems to have adopted 4G enabled on WiMax and is knotting loose ends with PC & chip manufacturers to get devices ready to support its investment and initiatives. It is believed that 4G enabled WiMax will offer 4 times the speed of 3G at 1/10th the cost - now those kind of economics, if correct, will indeed transform the way business is being done at present!
What would need to get seen too is the implication of this on other allied industries. While most believe that the emergence of 3G would put wired businesses out of business, the same industry also requires a huge investment in structured cabling to enable/ensure effective wireless experience at the user end. One of the driving concerns also seems to be the state of development of the nation, completely underdeveloped or less developed nations (so called) can now leapfrog directly to WiMesh networks, while the developed nations rely on conventional wired Broadband as a route to recover their own investments. Another related issue is the handshake between operators of different technologies to enable the consumer to have a seamless experience as he/she switch thru zones intentionally/unintentionally. Clearly, there are quite a few issues that still need even contemplating and documenting, let alone addressing, but the cost advantage of Wireless Networks in terms of Capex per sub are too significant to ignore.
The other major driver of the wireless revolution (in addition to the reduced Capex/sub) is the emergence of mCommerce applications. It is the combined impact of these two factors that seems to be driving VC money towards the wireless industry, which dominates more than 60% of all global telecom investment.
However, it would seem that the industry too has not yet completely aligned on how WiMax should get rolled out. The disagreement between the GSM and CDMA players on the frequency band for WiMax & the inertia of the government in taking an instant decision has once again come in the way of rapid growth. Globally though, there seems to be progress amidst chaos. Sprint seems to have adopted 4G enabled on WiMax and is knotting loose ends with PC & chip manufacturers to get devices ready to support its investment and initiatives. It is believed that 4G enabled WiMax will offer 4 times the speed of 3G at 1/10th the cost - now those kind of economics, if correct, will indeed transform the way business is being done at present!
Telcos : The Consultants Dream Business
Indeed, some of the older theoretical concepts of Lifecycle curves, Porters 5 Force Industry Analysis, Everetts Diffusion of Innovations curves etc are making their strong presence felt and needed in the Telecom industry. This meme of mine has been triggered by the article here, which speaks of the resignation of the SingTel head honcho & the outlook on the global market.
The telecom industry seems quite global indeed & with a smattering of products. The products are in different stages of evolution, each differently in each market. While Landlines are almost universally in the mature/decline state in some, mobile phones are showing widely varing trends. Deutsche Telekoms performance and its marked pessimism on the landline business is noteworthy of the trends to come. Further, even their broadband investments are headed in the direction of VOIP enabled networks rather than the underground variety. The persistence of VOIP & TComs belief is further vindicated in their launch of the bundled Mobile-WiFi telephone. It would also appear from the same article that BT has already embarked on this path & so has the hardware giant Nokia, which has launched instruments capable of seamless transitions between technologies.
And there are other services arising out of convergence, where technological innovations are diffusing through customers in ways unexpected - which brings us to different consumer segments, each in their own state of evolution.
An example of the convergence above is Cable operators offering Triple Play bundles. Given the lower engagement levels that a landline has with respect to television, the playout seems to be interestingly poised. Will IPTV then become a competitive imperative rather than a strategic initiative? Are the telco's our competion or the cable guys? Who reaches the home first and who provides service? Interestingly, Reliance and Tata are indeed probably weaving their models to include entertainment. The continuous assault on the futures of the landline business continue, plagued on the broadband front from WiMax/WiBro & on the IPTV front by the imminent entry of Cable guys... which brings me to my fundamental question, what is it I am upto out here? :-)
Another example of completely new products that are being launched is In Flight Communication. Hopefully though this whole initiative of In Flight service will not be a con job like what Virgin claims to offer. I am not sure of this, but clearly there seems to be a revenue opportunity for this service. Long Distance airlines even in domestic routes (to Kolkatta for example) would be ideal target segments. In fact, like the Public Access WiFi, there probably exists a space for a branded service integrator getting into this field and tieing up with the telcos. As one can see, the ease with which completely new and innovative services are launched and their potential for take-off (bad pun), could radically alter the industry structure giving rise to whole new operating spaces.
The whole debate on Net Neutrality itself throws further light on the need for a considered view on the telecom industry. It raises interesting questions on the nature of the pricing & business models in operation, similar to a previous post of mine on Online Music. The differential taxation/pricing of bandwidth by telcos based on the nature of content also gives rise to probable new industries in the technical and billing software realm.
Another such insight from Accenture seems to divide the current situation into 4 key facets : Decelerating growth in wireless/broadband, Capex/Opex/Cost focus by landlines, the IP revolution & increased competition. In fact another such example of blurred boundaries is seen in Bharti & IBM inking their SDP deal worth more than $100Mn. It would assume that going forward, IBM would start to extensively front end discussions with service providers including content-services, a role traditionally played by the telco's themselves. The pressure on costs is not only on the suppliers to the players in the industry, but also on the consumers. Efforts are still going to develop low cost PCs, notwithstanding India's backing out of the OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) initiative. The cost pressure and the IP revolution above are being jointly adopted as a strategic route by the ISPs of Hyderabad, Indias own Cyberabad, where they are demanding unbundling of last mile copper & legalization of VOIP services within the country. Here too the government is probably facing its Citizen versus Consumer struggle, what with the telecom PSU's share in government revenue being threatened to get obliterated with the technological discontinuity arising from VOIP.
The easy availability of money from venture capitalists is another force to reckon with, which will reduce entry barriers into the sector by small players and increase competition with them providing a wide range of services arising out of the above convergence.
The telecom industry seems quite global indeed & with a smattering of products. The products are in different stages of evolution, each differently in each market. While Landlines are almost universally in the mature/decline state in some, mobile phones are showing widely varing trends. Deutsche Telekoms performance and its marked pessimism on the landline business is noteworthy of the trends to come. Further, even their broadband investments are headed in the direction of VOIP enabled networks rather than the underground variety. The persistence of VOIP & TComs belief is further vindicated in their launch of the bundled Mobile-WiFi telephone. It would also appear from the same article that BT has already embarked on this path & so has the hardware giant Nokia, which has launched instruments capable of seamless transitions between technologies.
And there are other services arising out of convergence, where technological innovations are diffusing through customers in ways unexpected - which brings us to different consumer segments, each in their own state of evolution.
An example of the convergence above is Cable operators offering Triple Play bundles. Given the lower engagement levels that a landline has with respect to television, the playout seems to be interestingly poised. Will IPTV then become a competitive imperative rather than a strategic initiative? Are the telco's our competion or the cable guys? Who reaches the home first and who provides service? Interestingly, Reliance and Tata are indeed probably weaving their models to include entertainment. The continuous assault on the futures of the landline business continue, plagued on the broadband front from WiMax/WiBro & on the IPTV front by the imminent entry of Cable guys... which brings me to my fundamental question, what is it I am upto out here? :-)
Another example of completely new products that are being launched is In Flight Communication. Hopefully though this whole initiative of In Flight service will not be a con job like what Virgin claims to offer. I am not sure of this, but clearly there seems to be a revenue opportunity for this service. Long Distance airlines even in domestic routes (to Kolkatta for example) would be ideal target segments. In fact, like the Public Access WiFi, there probably exists a space for a branded service integrator getting into this field and tieing up with the telcos. As one can see, the ease with which completely new and innovative services are launched and their potential for take-off (bad pun), could radically alter the industry structure giving rise to whole new operating spaces.
The whole debate on Net Neutrality itself throws further light on the need for a considered view on the telecom industry. It raises interesting questions on the nature of the pricing & business models in operation, similar to a previous post of mine on Online Music. The differential taxation/pricing of bandwidth by telcos based on the nature of content also gives rise to probable new industries in the technical and billing software realm.
Another such insight from Accenture seems to divide the current situation into 4 key facets : Decelerating growth in wireless/broadband, Capex/Opex/Cost focus by landlines, the IP revolution & increased competition. In fact another such example of blurred boundaries is seen in Bharti & IBM inking their SDP deal worth more than $100Mn. It would assume that going forward, IBM would start to extensively front end discussions with service providers including content-services, a role traditionally played by the telco's themselves. The pressure on costs is not only on the suppliers to the players in the industry, but also on the consumers. Efforts are still going to develop low cost PCs, notwithstanding India's backing out of the OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) initiative. The cost pressure and the IP revolution above are being jointly adopted as a strategic route by the ISPs of Hyderabad, Indias own Cyberabad, where they are demanding unbundling of last mile copper & legalization of VOIP services within the country. Here too the government is probably facing its Citizen versus Consumer struggle, what with the telecom PSU's share in government revenue being threatened to get obliterated with the technological discontinuity arising from VOIP.
The easy availability of money from venture capitalists is another force to reckon with, which will reduce entry barriers into the sector by small players and increase competition with them providing a wide range of services arising out of the above convergence.
Really funky reading!
2. And thats content services for you : Another ex-state owned behemoth, under new leadership, cruises along on its journey of Broadband. Truly, VSNL must rank as amongst the most inventive of companies in this space. Their application which enables converges between the PC and the mobile phone, specific to blogging, is reflective of the vision and foresight of the company. What it though lacks probably is the smartness to effectively market the same, probably because it is a company which has brilliant geeks, who's end is the product delivered; kudos to VSNL on this one. Having said that, here is a real life example of the power of technology to create global social media, Podcasting is coming of age. But business are as confused as to how to leverage this phenomenon. With more research money being channeled here, there is a sense of urgency to create a business/revenue model from this fast catching habit. I recall Hutch's Great Indian Laughter Champions edits being sent around as MMS/Podcasts, but then I dont think the market was ready for it then, either from a transmission or a handset point of view. It will be interesting to see what happens next here.
3. Sam Pitroda's article on Knowledge as a source of power. Probably another big market we need to leverage as an organization is Online Education. Of all our content offerings, we seem to be spectacularly weak on this front. And if we believe that the youth are the largest market in the country, indeed we should be targeting them with offerings that are relevant to the nation too! But instead we operate and peddle Gaming and Music :-) Thats probably too harsh a view, but then these are indeed individual opinions - we need to get our act together on the content front of education and fast.
4. Apocalypse Delayed : For all those sounding the doom of telecom operators thanks to VOIP, a contrarion view is presented here. Though my personal view is still limited due to knowledge, I feel that the inertia of technology adoption as a reason for the delay of VOIP is limited to corporate segments and older folks. I would assume that younger folks are fully connected on VOIP leading to a generation gap of a very different kind! :-)
5. The genius of crime : Reminiscent of "Catch me if you can", probably the next big FBI or CIA agent will come from the youth infested criminal dens such as these, which thrive with an in-depth understanding of the technology and ways to beat the system. Indeed, this could be a job for the Batman or the Phantom!
6. The WiFi Net2Phone & The SMC WiFi Skype Phone : Its introduction with WiMax/WiBro or even simple mesh networks with wireless backhaul is another viewpoint on the probable evolutionary path that the telco industry may take. Further, given the explosive growth of this segment and the proliferation of hardware vendors entering this segment, the future seems quite exciting. Interestingly, even though Mobile applications are the real driver of WiMax, the lack of affordable wifi mobile handsets till 2009 will result in broadband driving the adoption of WiMax. According to Frost & Sullivan's research article, Asia will be the de facto test bed for the rollout of WiMax as it competes head on against 3G & Broadband. Yet the devices industry on this sector continues with Sony now launching a basic WiFi personal communicator, for chat, sms, and voip calls, at a mighty $350 tag - will be interesting to observe Moore's law here and see the effect on pricing of WiFi hardware.
7. Jpeg & the compression algorithm : I have no clue about this except that I remember someone telling me that you wont gain much if you try to winzip a certain files because they were already compressed. But when one reads of stuff like this, the old thrill of mathematics once again rises to the fore and I wonder what I'm doing here :-)
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Of STBs, IPTV & other paraphernalia
There seems to be a major battle happening on the Set Top Box front. Out here, it would seem that one of the critical-to-success-factor would be any entrants level of tie-ups with the local cable operators or the MSOs, rather - I would say that the CSF would be the ability to ensure that ones own STB penetrates and reaches the house. Of course, post acquisition service would be the next big thing to determine longer term success, but the short term success would clearly lie in the former.
One issue is technology itself. Even as the industry seems to be settling for IPTV in favor of content-delivery-on-PC, the need for high end digital televisions comes up and a more hidden component - the software for the IPTV. Microsoft seems to be running ahead on this, leaving even the Telco's it took with itself on this journey. I cant claim to completely understand the linkages, but it would seem that there is a Microsoft based software that would run on the TV or the STB (knowing msft, it would be a customer interfacing experience) using which the user would control his/her experience of the TV - say, switching channels or recording programs or Picture-in-picture etc. Most telcos though, even globally, seem to have decided to go slow on the new product and evaluate multiple vendors when the need does arise at that point in time.
The 'constraints' or rather, the complications posed by technology do not affect only the telcos, but even the Cable TV industry. The concerns and issues they seem to be grappling with deal with the CPE upgradation required from their end to make them capable of delivering IP content. Here CPE would be both the in-premise equipment of the LCO/MSO and the cabling that has been used to deliver TV thus far. There is also the question of the standards/protocols to be used to send such signals - globally DOCSIS has gained acceptance, particularly in the US and Korea - given the nature of this industry and its experience on non-standardized protocols, it would seem that there will be still time to go, this more so since there will be pressure on the system to enable tCommerce (Television Commerce) in a more effective manner. Incidentally, there is this wonderful chapter by John Battelle (Author of The Search) in his book on the impact that convergence & data storage+analytics will have on the way the world gets presented to us by marketing companies! Yet, while the debate on standards and protocols continues here, the same has its version happening on the regular networking and telephony front, where Open Source is making a minor entry. This could transform business models in the business sector, just as Google's spreadsheet may transform the fortunes of Msft's office application. Of course, a true collusion model will see them both start to price it at a pay-per-use model, time will tell.
There is operating a three tier structure in the Cable TV industry as well. There are three levels of operators whom the consumer is going to fund through his monthly subscription - The content provider (aka broadcaster), the MSO and LCO (Local Cable Operator). The jury seems to be still out on what the revenue sharing mechanism between these three would be. In an IPTV scenario, both the MSO and the LCO are obviated, leaving a single telco in the fray simplifying negotiations, as compared to a three-party-agreement. On the DTH front however, which has opened yet again the pricing issue of channels, TRAI now proposing a ceiling price on bouquets (something akin to MRP on goods) and allowing broadcasters/MSOs to discount and offer schemes accordingly. The basic argument on revenue sharing stems from the lack of transparency today on the subscriber numbers & hence the duel between the operators and the broadcasters. The argument has also taken a turn for the philosophical, as to whether TRAI should use pricing for regulation in a non-competitive scenario (since the three players on this sector offer different sets of channels completely) or whether TRAI should use pricing to enable growth!
While these revenue sharing debates prolong here, the phenomenon of equity deals/mergers is taking hold in the west, with Home Choice (Video Networks) & Tiscali's recent announcement. If its not equity, it strategic partnerships in the backend at least, like mPhase with Oracle - clearly the need for sophisticated data management systems will drive such relationships & it would appear that there would be an industry here in the waiting to integrate with traditional media firms that measure spends and advertising money effectiveness. BT too has done its homework and is readying itself through tie-ups with content providers to deliver its IPTV solution, branded as BT Vision. The article here also talks of AT&T's tie up with GoITV, which is not entirely an IPTV solution, rather one custom built for Msft TV.
While this happens, the court has mandated the use of STBs in key metros. This is another interesting industry twist, if one may say so - and one needs to look at the various players involved & the methods of regulation. There is also going debate on the pricing structure to be adopted and another nested debate on who would decide it - TRAI, BRAI, some other new body etc - the key decision though seems to have been reached on the base price of the Free-To-Air channels, which is pegged at Rs. 77. Thus the scenario seems set for Level1 and Level2 boquets of channels, and knowing the price points, it may either be at 25/49/99/149 kind of Bata-Shoe pricing.
I wonder what the government will do to prevent the imminent cartelization & price fixing, will the regulator be appointed in time, will guidelines emerge and will the government vest the regulator with teeth, for there are numerous cases such as the recent Short-code-SMS issue, where the DOT and TRAI in this case have differed in their approach and the DOT has overruled the TRAI. Quite a unique case for the consumer versus citizen debate!
Linked to the convergence of these services & their pricing is the Broadcast Bill, and one of my favorite topics - the Citizen versus Consumer debate. It seems that the broadcast bill is not in the public domain (and this is such a wonderful article), given the sensitive nature of its contents and implications. Indeed, it would seem that there is need for a complete relook into and overhaul of the MRTP regulations in India and what constitutes monopolies and resulting restrictive trade practices that would harm the citizen. However, in a debate organized by indiantelevision.com, the issues discussed seem to be much more trivial and bordering on the generic in comparison, that either one is forced to believe the incompetence of the debaters (on public policy, not their functional domains, no offense meant) or one is forced to believe the deliberate attempt to mislead. I would assume its probably unintentional misleading, since the opening assumption equates the government and private sectors as the same with reference to the consumer (ref Lulla's quote), however he seems to have missed what I perceive as the Citizen versus Consumer aspect.
If any Telco intends to do the same, it should probably start communicating with existing customers and get a basic customer profile sheet filled out in their call center through a locally designed application, that captures the customers name, number and contact details and sends out the message to the customer once the telco is ready. This should be the way on launching IPTV!
One issue is technology itself. Even as the industry seems to be settling for IPTV in favor of content-delivery-on-PC, the need for high end digital televisions comes up and a more hidden component - the software for the IPTV. Microsoft seems to be running ahead on this, leaving even the Telco's it took with itself on this journey. I cant claim to completely understand the linkages, but it would seem that there is a Microsoft based software that would run on the TV or the STB (knowing msft, it would be a customer interfacing experience) using which the user would control his/her experience of the TV - say, switching channels or recording programs or Picture-in-picture etc. Most telcos though, even globally, seem to have decided to go slow on the new product and evaluate multiple vendors when the need does arise at that point in time.
The 'constraints' or rather, the complications posed by technology do not affect only the telcos, but even the Cable TV industry. The concerns and issues they seem to be grappling with deal with the CPE upgradation required from their end to make them capable of delivering IP content. Here CPE would be both the in-premise equipment of the LCO/MSO and the cabling that has been used to deliver TV thus far. There is also the question of the standards/protocols to be used to send such signals - globally DOCSIS has gained acceptance, particularly in the US and Korea - given the nature of this industry and its experience on non-standardized protocols, it would seem that there will be still time to go, this more so since there will be pressure on the system to enable tCommerce (Television Commerce) in a more effective manner. Incidentally, there is this wonderful chapter by John Battelle (Author of The Search) in his book on the impact that convergence & data storage+analytics will have on the way the world gets presented to us by marketing companies! Yet, while the debate on standards and protocols continues here, the same has its version happening on the regular networking and telephony front, where Open Source is making a minor entry. This could transform business models in the business sector, just as Google's spreadsheet may transform the fortunes of Msft's office application. Of course, a true collusion model will see them both start to price it at a pay-per-use model, time will tell.
There is operating a three tier structure in the Cable TV industry as well. There are three levels of operators whom the consumer is going to fund through his monthly subscription - The content provider (aka broadcaster), the MSO and LCO (Local Cable Operator). The jury seems to be still out on what the revenue sharing mechanism between these three would be. In an IPTV scenario, both the MSO and the LCO are obviated, leaving a single telco in the fray simplifying negotiations, as compared to a three-party-agreement. On the DTH front however, which has opened yet again the pricing issue of channels, TRAI now proposing a ceiling price on bouquets (something akin to MRP on goods) and allowing broadcasters/MSOs to discount and offer schemes accordingly. The basic argument on revenue sharing stems from the lack of transparency today on the subscriber numbers & hence the duel between the operators and the broadcasters. The argument has also taken a turn for the philosophical, as to whether TRAI should use pricing for regulation in a non-competitive scenario (since the three players on this sector offer different sets of channels completely) or whether TRAI should use pricing to enable growth!
While these revenue sharing debates prolong here, the phenomenon of equity deals/mergers is taking hold in the west, with Home Choice (Video Networks) & Tiscali's recent announcement. If its not equity, it strategic partnerships in the backend at least, like mPhase with Oracle - clearly the need for sophisticated data management systems will drive such relationships & it would appear that there would be an industry here in the waiting to integrate with traditional media firms that measure spends and advertising money effectiveness. BT too has done its homework and is readying itself through tie-ups with content providers to deliver its IPTV solution, branded as BT Vision. The article here also talks of AT&T's tie up with GoITV, which is not entirely an IPTV solution, rather one custom built for Msft TV.
While this happens, the court has mandated the use of STBs in key metros. This is another interesting industry twist, if one may say so - and one needs to look at the various players involved & the methods of regulation. There is also going debate on the pricing structure to be adopted and another nested debate on who would decide it - TRAI, BRAI, some other new body etc - the key decision though seems to have been reached on the base price of the Free-To-Air channels, which is pegged at Rs. 77. Thus the scenario seems set for Level1 and Level2 boquets of channels, and knowing the price points, it may either be at 25/49/99/149 kind of Bata-Shoe pricing.
I wonder what the government will do to prevent the imminent cartelization & price fixing, will the regulator be appointed in time, will guidelines emerge and will the government vest the regulator with teeth, for there are numerous cases such as the recent Short-code-SMS issue, where the DOT and TRAI in this case have differed in their approach and the DOT has overruled the TRAI. Quite a unique case for the consumer versus citizen debate!
Linked to the convergence of these services & their pricing is the Broadcast Bill, and one of my favorite topics - the Citizen versus Consumer debate. It seems that the broadcast bill is not in the public domain (and this is such a wonderful article), given the sensitive nature of its contents and implications. Indeed, it would seem that there is need for a complete relook into and overhaul of the MRTP regulations in India and what constitutes monopolies and resulting restrictive trade practices that would harm the citizen. However, in a debate organized by indiantelevision.com, the issues discussed seem to be much more trivial and bordering on the generic in comparison, that either one is forced to believe the incompetence of the debaters (on public policy, not their functional domains, no offense meant) or one is forced to believe the deliberate attempt to mislead. I would assume its probably unintentional misleading, since the opening assumption equates the government and private sectors as the same with reference to the consumer (ref Lulla's quote), however he seems to have missed what I perceive as the Citizen versus Consumer aspect.
If any Telco intends to do the same, it should probably start communicating with existing customers and get a basic customer profile sheet filled out in their call center through a locally designed application, that captures the customers name, number and contact details and sends out the message to the customer once the telco is ready. This should be the way on launching IPTV!
Saturday, August 05, 2006
The Datacenter vertical
It would seem that telco's would do well to focus on the Datacenter vertical. If the article here is anything to go by, that would seem to be the next interesting business opportunity for outsourcing, and hence there would be phenomenal need for bandwidth.
Datacenters also represent an opportunity for companies to look at cost optimization. Typically, electricity costs in any company would be the largest component of Admin expenses, and for those that have outsourced their IT applications to the big daddy's, relocating the datacenter on the IT partners premises presents an immense saving potential & also puts pressure back on the vendor by milking ones payout for the maximum bang! :) But there is hope yet for the nay-sayers, as this recent blackout proves, it probably reaffirms my personal belief that the next big biz would be power/energy & alternate power sources would be required to ensure continued uptime of datacenters.
Interestingly, these datacenter locations could well eventually become Diplomatic centers, with virtual embassies, as more and more critical information enters these datacenters. On a more spaced out notion, the impact of datacenters on global warming probably needs to get looked into, as such concentrated efforts in air-conditioning must generate a lot of heat! And thus we return to our meme of Energy.
Datacenters also represent an opportunity for companies to look at cost optimization. Typically, electricity costs in any company would be the largest component of Admin expenses, and for those that have outsourced their IT applications to the big daddy's, relocating the datacenter on the IT partners premises presents an immense saving potential & also puts pressure back on the vendor by milking ones payout for the maximum bang! :) But there is hope yet for the nay-sayers, as this recent blackout proves, it probably reaffirms my personal belief that the next big biz would be power/energy & alternate power sources would be required to ensure continued uptime of datacenters.
Interestingly, these datacenter locations could well eventually become Diplomatic centers, with virtual embassies, as more and more critical information enters these datacenters. On a more spaced out notion, the impact of datacenters on global warming probably needs to get looked into, as such concentrated efforts in air-conditioning must generate a lot of heat! And thus we return to our meme of Energy.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Changing models
But with the new lines of battle being as they are and the rigorous emergence of DRM and limited copying, probably there will be the emergence of satellite and live online radio with stream recorders that will continue to keep the generations kicking. I am against piracy where there is commercial gain. I am all for sharing music like we used to do. The debate will probably continue!
Meanwhile, the mode of music download too is of interest. Globally it would seem that more than 80% of all revenue would come from mobile downloads, versus only 20% of revenues from non-mobile downloads. I am not sure about the usage statistics though, given the prevalence of P2P networks on broadband, maybe there is scope for a mobile P2P network and song sharing, lets see if I can work on that with some friends based on this article here. But I never really know what happened with Airtel & Hutch launching their music services and becoming oh-so-quiet after that, though I do see Hutch still advertising something to do with music, its all too confusing!
But its not as if the content industry is sitting quiet. Hollywood biggies are eager to avoid making the mistake of losing their consumers to the tech giants like Apple. Which explains why Fox Movies is coming out with pay-per-download models where consumers can download movies from their sites in digital versions. Warner Bros has already embarked on this journey!
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Transportable downloads
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